SYSPRO Ribbon bar > Setup > Distribution > Inventory Optimization Setup

Inventory Optimization Setup

You use this program to define the setup options of your Inventory Forecasting and Inventory Families & Groupings modules.

For this module to run efficiently, we recommend that you select the options you require before processing any transactions. However, most of the options can be changed later, if necessary.

General

Field Description
Forecast horizon (months)

Indicate the number of months into the future for which you want to generate forecasts. This defaults to 12.

[Note]

The value chosen should be longer than the longest lead times for any stock code.

This parameter can only be set at company level.

Default forecast calendar

Indicate the default forecast calendar that must be used for forecasting (see Forecast Calendars).

You can override this entry either singly or for multiple stock codes at stock code/revision/release/warehouse level using the Options Maintenance facility in the Inventory Forecasting and Inventory Optimization modules.

Number of standard deviations to define outliers

When adjusting for outliers, the demand history for any sales period for a given stock code/revision/release/warehouse that differs from the mean by more than the figure entered here will have an adjustment entry generated. This defaults to 3.

[Note]

Periods with zero demand are not adjusted.

This parameter can only be set at company level.

Seasonal profile correlation cut-off

Any stock code/revision/release/warehouse that, when tested for seasonality, has a seasonal profile correlation of less than the figure entered here will be deemed to be non-seasonal. This parameter can range from 0 to 1.0 (where 0 corresponds to no correlation and 1.0 to complete correlation) and defaults to 0.75.

[Note]

This parameter can only be set at company level.

Number of months to retain information Indicate the number of months of demand history must be retained in the Inventory Optimization sales forecasting tables. An entry of 99 indicates that you want to retain records indefinitely. You must retain records for a minimum of 36 months.
Amendment journals required  
Families and Groupings structure

Select this to generate journals for amendments made to Families and Groupings structures using the Families and Groupings program.

This enables you to monitor information that has changed for structures such as Collection additions, changes and deletions and SKU (Stock Keeping Unit) additions and deletions. These changes affect the resultant forecast.

You can list the journals using the IO Amendment Journal program.

Selection sets Select this to generate journals for amendments made to selection sets using the Selection Set Maintenance program.

You can list the journals using the IO Selection Sets Amendment Journal program.

[Note]

This parameter can only be set at company level.

Policy settings Select this to generate journals for amendments made to policy settings using the IO Policies, IO Batch Policy Maintenance and IO Copy Policies programs.

You can list the journals using the IO Policy Amendment Journal program.

[Note]

This parameter can only be set at company level.

Update sales history automatically Select this to automatically update forecast history for sales and sales returns when you next run the Manual Forecasting, Batch Forecasting, Demand History Maintenance and Pareto Analysis programs.
[Note]

Forecast history is only updated for the stock code/warehouse combinations you select to process in these programs.

You should, therefore, still run the IO Purge and Update program to ensure that the forecast history is updated for all sales and sales returns.

If you do not select this option, then the update to forecast history for sales and sales returns only takes place when you run the IO Purge and Update program.
Prompt for aggregation in Families and Groupings Select this if you want to be prompted to aggregate sales history whenever you access the Families and Groupings program.

You are prompted to perform the sales aggregation whenever you add to or delete an SKU, a consolidated warehouse item or a sub-collection in any collection, or when you maintain sales adjustments or adjust for outliers.

If you do not select this option, then you will not be automatically prompted to aggregate sales history in the Families and Groupings program. The Sales Aggregation screen will only be displayed when you select the Aggregate Sales History option from the Edit menu.

[Note]

Irrespective of your selection at this option, the IO Purge and Update program will perform the aggregation for you if an update is needed.

Restore Defaults Select this to change the information in all fields on all tabs back to the default settings.
[Note]

All changes you made will then be lost.

Save

Select this to save the selections you made on all the tab pages and to exit the program.

Print

Select this to print a report of your Inventory Optimization setup options.

It is advisable to keep this report for disaster recovery purposes.

Cancel

Select this to exit the program without saving any changes you made.

Help

Select this to view the latest online Help documentation for this program.

Algorithms 1

Field Description
Default forecast algorithm

Indicate the default algorithm to use when forecasting. This defaults to Competition.

[Note]

You can override this at stock code/revision/release/warehouse level.

The following algorithms are available:

  • Competition
  • Mean
  • Median
  • Moving average
  • Exponential smoothing with trend
  • Six period weighted average
  • Twelve period weighted average
  • Holt-Winters additive
  • Holt-Winters multiplicative
  • Annual seasonal profile - unsmoothed
Competition options

Competition uses all the algorithms in turn within the look back window (Number of months to use for competition defined below) to forecast what has already happened. It then compares the results of each algorithm with what the actual demand was and uses the selected statistical formula (Measure to use for competition) to determine which algorithm performs best. Choosing different values for either of the two parameters can result in a different algorithm 'winning' the competition.

Number of months to use for competition

Indicate the number of months into the past for which forecasts must be generated to compare algorithms. This defaults to 12.

[Note]

This parameter can be set as a default at company level and overridden for one or many stock code/revision/release/warehouse instances using the Forecast Calendars program.

Measure to use for competition

Indicate the forecast error measurement that must be used when comparing algorithms. This defaults to Mean Square Deviation.

[Note]

This parameter can be set as a default at company level and overridden for one or many stock code/revision/release/warehouse instances using the Forecast Calendars program.

Cumulative Forecast Error (CFE)

Select this to calculate the forecast error using the Cumulative Forecast Error (CFE) calculation.

This represents the difference between the forecast and the actual sale(s) for the period under review, displayed cumulatively.

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

Select this to calculate the forecast error using the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) calculation.

This is the average absolute deviation from the mean (i.e. the average error, ignoring the sign of the error).

Mean Square Deviation (MSD)

Select this to calculate the forecast error using the Mean Square Deviation (MSD) calculation.

The sum of the squared forecast errors for each observation divided by the number of observations. It is an alternative to the Mean Absolute Deviation in that, because the errors are squared, more weight is placed on larger errors.

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

Select this to calculate the forecast error using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) calculation.

This is calculated as the average of the sum of all the absolute percentage errors for the data set. The absolute values of the percentages are summed and the average is computed.

That is, the difference between actual value and the forecast value is divided by the actual value. The absolute value of this calculation is summed for every forecast point in time and divided again by the number of fitted points. The result is displayed as a percentage.

Tracking Signal

Select this to calculate the forecast error using the Tracking Signal calculation.

This indicates whether the forecast average is keeping pace with any genuine upward or downward changes in demand.

The tracking signal is calculated as the sum of the forecast errors divided by the mean absolute deviation.

Mean options

The mean (or average) is a very simple and robust algorithm. It is useful when:

  • Only a small number of periods are available

  • Historic demand is fairly static and does not vary much, or

  • Historic demand is random and unpredictable.

This algorithm responds slowly to trends and does not detect seasonality.

Number of months to use for calculation

Indicate the number of months (from 2 to 12) to include when calculating the mean. This defaults to 12.

If the calendar is defined in weeks, the calculation still uses the number of months defined here to calculate the equivalent number of weeks.

[Note]

This parameter can be set as a default at company level and overridden for one or many stock code/revision/release/warehouse instances using the Forecast Calendars program.

Median options

The median (or middle value) is a very simple and robust algorithm. It is useful when:

  • Only a small number of periods are available

  • Historic demand is fairly static and does not vary much, or

  • Historic demand is random and unpredictable.

This algorithm responds slowly to trends and does not detect seasonality.

[Note]

If there are more periods with zero historic demand than with non-zero demand, the median will result in a forecast of zero, which may not be appropriate.

Number of months to use for calculation

Indicate the number of months (from 2 to 12) to include when calculating the median. This defaults to 12.

If the calendar is defined in weeks, the calculation still uses the number of months defined here to calculate the equivalent number of weeks.

[Note]

This parameter can be set as a default at company level and overridden for one or many stock code/revision/release/warehouse instances using the Forecast Calendars program.

Moving average options

This is a simple algorithm that responds to trend. The smaller the value for the number of months, the more responsive the calculation will be to changes. It does not detect seasonality.

Number of months to use for calculation

Indicate the number of months (from 2 to 6) to include when calculating the moving average. This defaults to 3.

If the calendar is defined in weeks, the calculation still uses the number of months defined here to calculate the equivalent number of weeks.

[Note]

This parameter can be set as a default at company level and overridden for one or many stock code/revision/release/warehouse instances using the Forecast Calendars program.

Exponential smoothing with trend options

Also known as double exponential smoothing, this algorithm calculates the forecast by adding a data component to a trend component. Each of these components has its own coefficient. Depending on the value of the coefficient, the algorithm will respond more slowly or more rapidly to trends.

This algorithm does not detect seasonality.

Smoothing coefficient

Indicate the smoothing coefficient between 0 and 1.0) that must be used when calculating forecasts using this algorithm. This defaults to 0.7.

The coefficient determines the weighting applied to the last two historic demands. The most recent demand is multiplied by the coefficient while the older one is multiplied by one minus the coefficient.

[Note]

This parameter can be set as a default at company level and overridden for one or many stock code/revision/release/warehouse instances using the Forecast Calendars program.

Trend coefficient

Indicate the trend coefficient to use when calculating forecasts using this algorithm. This defaults to 0.6.

You can override this at stock code/revision/release/warehouse level.

Algorithms 2

Field Description
Six period weighted average options

This algorithm calculates the forecast by weighting the contribution of the 6 periods immediately prior to the current one. The periods will be weeks or months, depending on the calendar being used.

Depending on the weighting values, the algorithm will respond more slowly or more rapidly to trends.

This algorithm does not detect seasonality.

[Note]

The weightings for all periods added together must equal one.

These parameters can be set as defaults at company level and overridden for one or many stock code/revision/release/warehouse instances using the Forecast Calendars program.

Weighting for periods forecast minus 1 & 2

Indicate the weighting that should be applied to the two periods immediately prior to the period being forecast. This defaults to 0.5, meaning that these two periods contribute 50% to the calculation of the forecast.

Weighting for periods forecast minus 3 &4

Indicate the weighting that should be applied to the third and fourth periods prior to the period being forecast. This defaults to 0.3, meaning that these two periods contribute 30% to the calculation of the forecast.

Weighting for periods forecast minus 5 & 6

Indicate the weighting that should be applied to the fifth and sixth periods prior to the period being forecast. This defaults to 0.2, meaning that these two periods contribute 20% to the calculation of the forecast.

Twelve period weighted average options

This algorithm calculates the forecast by weighting the contribution of the 12 periods immediately prior to the current one. The periods will be weeks or months, depending on the calendar being used.

Depending on the weighting values, the algorithm will respond more slowly or more rapidly to trends.

This algorithm does not detect seasonality.

[Note]

The weightings for all periods added together must equal one.

These parameters can be set as defaults at company level and overridden for one or many stock code/revision/release/warehouse instances using the Forecast Calendars program.

Weighting for periods forecast minus 1, 2 & 3

Indicate the weighting that should be applied to the first three periods immediately prior to the period being forecast. This defaults to 0.45, meaning that these three periods contribute 45% to the calculation of the forecast.

Weighting for periods forecast minus 4, 5 & 6

Indicate the weighting that should be applied to the fourth, fifth and sixth periods prior to the period being forecast. This defaults to 0.25, meaning that these three periods contribute 25% to the calculation of the forecast.

Weighting for periods forecast minus 7, 8 & 9

Indicate the weighting that should be applied to the seventh, eighth and ninth periods prior to the period being forecast. This defaults to 0.2, meaning that these three periods contribute 20% to the calculation of the forecast.

Weighting for periods forecast minus 10, 11 & 12

Indicate the weighting that should be applied to the tenth, eleventh and twelfth periods prior to the period being forecast. This defaults to 0.1, meaning that these three periods contribute 10% to the calculation of the forecast.

Holt-Winters additive options

The two Holt-Winters algorithms (additive and multiplicative) are complex algorithms that use three smoothing equations for level, trend and seasonality.

[Note]

The coefficients for these three components of the forecast can be calculated by SYSPRO or set by the user.

In the Holt-Winters Additive algorithm, the forecast is calculated by adding the three terms together.

[Note]

These parameters can be set as defaults at company level and overridden for one or many stock code/revision/release/warehouse instances using the Forecast Calendars program.

Optimize coefficients

Select this to let the system try to find the optimum coefficient values to use when forecasting, instead of the values at the coefficient fields below. This option is selected by default.

[Note]

Unless you have an advanced knowledge of how these algorithms work, we suggest that you let the system calculate the optimum values for the coefficients.

Level coefficient

Indicate the level coefficient to be applied when forecasting with this algorithm. This defaults to 0.

Trend coefficient

Indicate the trend coefficient to be applied when forecasting with this algorithm.

Seasonal coefficient

Indicate the seasonal coefficient to be applied when forecasting with this algorithm.

Holt-Winters multiplicative options

The two Holt-Winters algorithms (additive and multiplicative) are complex algorithms that use three smoothing equations for level, trend and seasonality.

[Note]

The coefficients for these three components of the forecast can be calculated by SYSPRO or set by the user.

In the Holt-Winters Multiplicative algorithm, the forecast is calculated by multiplying the three terms together.

[Note]

These parameters can be set as defaults at company level and overridden for one or many stock code/revision/release/warehouse instances using the Forecast Calendars program.

Optimize coefficients

Select this to let the system try to find the optimum coefficient values to use when forecasting, instead of the values at the coefficient fields below. This option is selected by default.

[Note]

Unless you have an advanced knowledge of how these algorithms work, we suggest that you let the system calculate the optimum values for the coefficients.

Level coefficient

Indicate the level coefficient to be applied when forecasting with this algorithm. This defaults to 0.

Trend coefficient

Indicate the trend coefficient to be applied when forecasting with this algorithm.

Seasonal coefficient

Indicate the seasonal coefficient to be applied when forecasting with this algorithm.

Modeling

Field Description
Modeling Options

Modeling allows the effect of a stock policy to be evaluated. The options below determine the outcome of the modeling calculation. By default, the model will take demand from the forecast. If no policy is in place, the suggested minimum will be zero and the suggested maximum equal to the total demand for the period.

The selections you make here are set as the defaults for the Modeling Options in the IO Stock Levels Modeling program and in the Information pane in the IO Forecast Accuracy Query program.

[Note]

These parameters can be set as defaults at company level and overridden for one or many stock code/revision/release/warehouse instances using the IO Stock Levels Modeling program. When changed within the IO Stock Levels Modeling program, the changes are treated as runtime values and are not saved.

Forecast to use in demand

The SYSPRO Inventory Optimization Suite uses a demand driven approach. This means that, in most cases, the inventory levels will be determined by the forecasted demand.

The parameter you select here is applied for each stock code/revision/release/warehouse instance (also called a SKU-Loc or Stock Keeping Unit Location).

Live

This is the forecast used for the Requirements Calculation and is stored in the Requirements Planning tables within SYSPRO.

Draft This is the forecast that is created by the Inventory Forecasting or Inventory Families and Groupings modules and is stored in the Inventory Optimization tables within SYSPRO.
Last snapshot Each time a Draft forecast is approved into Requirements Planning to become the Live forecast, a copy of that forecast is stored as a snapshot. As many snapshots may be stored within SYSPRO, this option selects the last snapshot created for each stock code/revision/release/warehouse instance.
Apply gross requirements rule Applies the gross requirements rule defined against the stock item when calculating the demand for a stock code/warehouse.

Sales order demand is used as the basis for the calculation to determine the minimum level required for each period.

[Note]
  • For Make to Order items, ensure that the Demand Time Fences (DTFs) are accurately defined before selecting this option.

    • Outside the DTF, the Highest of sales or forecasts, Sum of forecasts and sales, etc., rules are applied.

    • Inside the DTF, only sales orders are considered. Therefore, if the DTF is zero, the rules are never applied.

  • For a non Make to Order item, a Demand Time Fence cannot be defined, so a DTF at the beginning of the first period is assumed which means that the gross requirements rule is applied immediately.

  • The DTF caters for the period it falls into even if its period length is shorter than the Inventory Optimization calendar period in use.

If you do not apply the gross requirements rule, then forecasts are always used as the demand.
Include dependant demand Select this to include demand created by existing job allocations in calculating the model. This does not include demand from suggested jobs.
Apply batching rule to calculate maximum

Select this rule to calculate the maximum stock level using the batching rule.

By default, with no policy in place the model will suggest a minimum of zero and a maximum equal to the total demand. If a policy is in place, the model will calculate the minimum and maximum according to the policy. In either case the calculation of the maximum will be modified by the effect of the batching rule.

Period days to use There are several fields in IO modelling which are based on the number of days in the period.
Total Select this to use the total days in a period as part of the modeling calculation.
Working Select this to use only the working days in a period as part of the modeling calculation.
Forecast accuracy defaults These parameters define the way in which the forecast accuracy program calculates the accuracy at each stock code/revision/release/warehouse instance and also at aggregated levels.
[Note]

All of these parameters can be set as defaults at company level and overridden for one or many stock code/revision/release/warehouse instances using the Selection Set Maintenance program.

Please see Possible combinations of Comparison type and Forecast to use for the possible combinations of Comparison type with Forecast to use.

Comparison type  
Period on period Select this to compare the chosen forecast to the actual within the same period only. The forecast accuracy calculation only uses data pertaining to the period in question.
Moving average Select this to compare the chosen forecast to the actual where both are calculated using a moving average. The forecast accuracy calculation uses data not only pertaining to the period in question but also to others near to it.
Forecast to use Indicate which forecast to use when comparing against sales for each period.
Last Select this to use the last forecast taken for the period irrespective of whether this snapshot is inside or outside the lead time.
Last outside lead Select this to use the last forecast taken for the period outside of the lead time.
[Note]

The lead time is that held for the stock code in the inventory master file added to the dock to stock time.

Forecasts generated within the lead time should not be used as it is too late to affect changes based on them.

Average

Select this to use the average of the most recent snapshots within the time window defined by the number of Snapshot months defined below.

[Note]

If the forecast calendar is in weeks, then the number of snapshots will be determined by how many weekly snapshots fall within the number of months defined in Snapshot months.

If more than one forecast snapshot is created within a calendar period, only the last one is retained.

Average outside lead

Select this to use the average of the most recent snapshots outside the lead time, within the time window defined by the number of Snapshot months defined below.

[Note]

If the forecast calendar is in weeks, then the number of snapshots will be determined by how many weekly snapshots fall within the number of months defined in Snapshot months.

If more than one forecast snapshot is created within a calendar period, only the last one is retained.

Months to compare

Select the time window in months prior to the Run date selected for the Forecast Accuracy review. If the calendar used is in weeks, then all the periods that fall within this time window will be included. The time window can be anything from 1 to 12 months.

Moving average months

Select the time window in months for the periods used in the calculation of the moving average forecast in the Forecast Accuracy review. If the calendar used is in weeks, then all the periods that fall within this time window will be included. The time window can be anything from 1 to 12 months.

[Note]

This value is only used if the Comparison type selected is Moving average.

Snapshot months

Indicate the time window, in months, prior to the Run date selected for the Forecast Accuracy review. If the calendar used is in weeks, then all the snapshots that fall within this time window will be included.

The time window can be anything from 1 to 6 months.

[Note]

This value is only used if the Forecast to use selected is either Average or Average outside lead.

Possible combinations of Comparison type and Forecast to use

The possible combinations of Comparison type with Forecast to use are summarized below:

  Period on period Moving average
Last Uses last forecast snapshot.

Uses the average of the last forecast snapshots within each of the periods that fall in the time window defined by Moving average months. The periods are defined by the forecast calendar used for the forecast accuracy calculation.

Last outside lead Uses last forecast snapshot outside lead time added to dock to stock.

Uses the average of the last forecast snapshots outside the lead time within each of the periods that fall in the time window defined by Moving average months.

Average Uses the average of the forecasts for all the snapshots for the periods that fall within the time window defined by Snapshot months. The periods are defined by the forecast calendar used for the forecast accuracy calculation.

Uses the average of the last forecast snapshots within all of the periods that fall in the time window defined by Moving average months and for all the snapshots within the time window defined by Snapshot months. The periods are defined by the forecast calendar used for the forecast accuracy calculation.

Average outside lead Uses the average of the forecasts for all the snapshots outside lead time added to dock to stock for the periods that fall within the time window defined by Snapshot months. The periods are defined by the forecast calendar used for the forecast accuracy calculation.

Uses the average of the last forecast snapshots outside lead time added to dock to stock within all of the periods that fall in the time window defined by Moving average months and for all the snapshots within the time window defined by Snapshot months. The periods are defined by the forecast calendar used for the forecast accuracy calculation.

Defining modeling setup options

Modeling is used to determine the different stock levels with different forecasting policies. Calculating forecast accuracy is important in modeling as well as forecast management.

  1. Open the Inventory Optimization Setup program (SYSPRO ribbon bar > Setup > Distribution Setup > Inventory Optimization).

  2. Select the Modeling tab.

  3. Select the modeling options required.

  4. Select the forecast accuracy defaults required.

  5. Save your changes.

Defining the forecasting demand history to be retained

  1. Open the Inventory Optimization Setup program (SYSPRO ribbon bar > Setup > Distribution Setup > Inventory Optimization).

  2. Select the General tab.

  3. Select the number of months to retain demand history for forecasting.

  4. Save your changes.