You use this program to define the setup options of your Inventory Forecasting and Inventory Families & Groupings modules.
For this module to run efficiently, we recommend that you select the options you require before processing any transactions. However, most of the options can be changed later, if necessary.
Field | Description | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecast horizon (months) |
Indicate the number of months into the future for which you want to generate forecasts. This defaults to 12.
|
||||
Default forecast calendar |
Indicate the default forecast calendar that must be used for forecasting (see Forecast Calendars). You can override this entry either singly or for multiple stock codes at stock code/revision/release/warehouse level using the Options Maintenance facility in the Inventory Forecasting and Inventory Optimization modules. |
||||
Number of standard deviations to define outliers |
When adjusting for outliers, the demand history for any sales period for a given stock code/revision/release/warehouse that differs from the mean by more than the figure entered here will have an adjustment entry generated. This defaults to 3.
|
||||
Seasonal profile correlation cut-off |
Any stock code/revision/release/warehouse that, when tested for seasonality, has a seasonal profile correlation of less than the figure entered here will be deemed to be non-seasonal. This parameter can range from 0 to 1.0 (where 0 corresponds to no correlation and 1.0 to complete correlation) and defaults to 0.75.
|
||||
Number of months to retain information | Indicate the number of months of demand history must be retained in the Inventory Optimization sales forecasting tables. An entry of 99 indicates that you want to retain records indefinitely. You must retain records for a minimum of 36 months. | ||||
Amendment journals required | |||||
Families and Groupings structure |
Select this to generate journals for amendments made to Families and Groupings structures using the Families and Groupings program. This enables you to monitor information that has changed for structures such as Collection additions, changes and deletions and SKU (Stock Keeping Unit) additions and deletions. These changes affect the resultant forecast. You can list the journals using the IO Amendment Journal program. |
||||
Selection sets | Select this to generate journals for amendments made to
selection sets using the Selection Set Maintenance program.
You can list the journals using the IO Selection Sets Amendment Journal program.
|
||||
Policy settings | Select this to generate journals for amendments made to
policy settings using the IO Policies, IO Batch Policy Maintenance and IO Copy Policies
programs. You can list the journals using the IO Policy Amendment Journal program.
|
||||
Update sales history automatically | Select this to automatically update forecast history
for sales and sales returns when you next run the Manual Forecasting, Batch Forecasting, Demand History Maintenance and Pareto Analysis programs.
|
||||
Prompt for aggregation in Families and Groupings | Select this if you want to be prompted to aggregate
sales history whenever you access the Families and Groupings
program. You are prompted to perform the sales aggregation whenever you add to or delete an SKU, a consolidated warehouse item or a sub-collection in any collection, or when you maintain sales adjustments or adjust for outliers. If you do not select this option, then you will not be automatically prompted to aggregate sales history in the Families and Groupings program. The Sales Aggregation screen will only be displayed when you select the Aggregate Sales History option from the Edit menu.
|
||||
Restore Defaults | Select this to change the information in all fields on
all tabs back to the default settings.
|
||||
Save |
Select this to save the selections you made on all the tab pages and to exit the program. |
||||
Select this to print a report of your Inventory Optimization setup options. It is advisable to keep this report for disaster recovery purposes. |
|||||
Cancel |
Select this to exit the program without saving any changes you made. |
||||
Help |
Select this to view the latest online Help documentation for this program. |
Field | Description | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Default forecast algorithm |
Indicate the default algorithm to use when forecasting. This defaults to Competition.
The following algorithms are available:
|
||||
Competition options |
Competition uses all the algorithms in turn within the look back window (Number of months to use for competition defined below) to forecast what has already happened. It then compares the results of each algorithm with what the actual demand was and uses the selected statistical formula (Measure to use for competition) to determine which algorithm performs best. Choosing different values for either of the two parameters can result in a different algorithm 'winning' the competition. |
||||
Number of months to use for competition |
Indicate the number of months into the past for which forecasts must be generated to compare algorithms. This defaults to 12.
|
||||
Measure to use for competition |
Indicate the forecast error measurement that must be used when comparing algorithms. This defaults to Mean Square Deviation.
|
||||
Cumulative Forecast Error (CFE) |
Select this to calculate the forecast error using the Cumulative Forecast Error (CFE) calculation. This represents the difference between the forecast and the actual sale(s) for the period under review, displayed cumulatively. |
||||
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) |
Select this to calculate the forecast error using the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) calculation. This is the average absolute deviation from the mean (i.e. the average error, ignoring the sign of the error). |
||||
Mean Square Deviation (MSD) |
Select this to calculate the forecast error using the Mean Square Deviation (MSD) calculation. The sum of the squared forecast errors for each observation divided by the number of observations. It is an alternative to the Mean Absolute Deviation in that, because the errors are squared, more weight is placed on larger errors. |
||||
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) |
Select this to calculate the forecast error using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) calculation. This is calculated as the average of the sum of all the absolute percentage errors for the data set. The absolute values of the percentages are summed and the average is computed. That is, the difference between actual value and the forecast value is divided by the actual value. The absolute value of this calculation is summed for every forecast point in time and divided again by the number of fitted points. The result is displayed as a percentage. |
||||
Tracking Signal |
Select this to calculate the forecast error using the Tracking Signal calculation. This indicates whether the forecast average is keeping pace with any genuine upward or downward changes in demand. The tracking signal is calculated as the sum of the forecast errors divided by the mean absolute deviation. |
||||
Mean options |
The mean (or average) is a very simple and robust algorithm. It is useful when:
This algorithm responds slowly to trends and does not detect seasonality. |
||||
Number of months to use for calculation |
Indicate the number of months (from 2 to 12) to include when calculating the mean. This defaults to 12. If the calendar is defined in weeks, the calculation still uses the number of months defined here to calculate the equivalent number of weeks.
|
||||
Median options |
The median (or middle value) is a very simple and robust algorithm. It is useful when:
This algorithm responds slowly to trends and does not detect seasonality.
|
||||
Number of months to use for calculation |
Indicate the number of months (from 2 to 12) to include when calculating the median. This defaults to 12. If the calendar is defined in weeks, the calculation still uses the number of months defined here to calculate the equivalent number of weeks.
|
||||
Moving average options |
This is a simple algorithm that responds to trend. The smaller the value for the number of months, the more responsive the calculation will be to changes. It does not detect seasonality. |
||||
Number of months to use for calculation |
Indicate the number of months (from 2 to 6) to include when calculating the moving average. This defaults to 3. If the calendar is defined in weeks, the calculation still uses the number of months defined here to calculate the equivalent number of weeks.
|
||||
Exponential smoothing with trend options |
Also known as double exponential smoothing, this algorithm calculates the forecast by adding a data component to a trend component. Each of these components has its own coefficient. Depending on the value of the coefficient, the algorithm will respond more slowly or more rapidly to trends. This algorithm does not detect seasonality. |
||||
Smoothing coefficient |
Indicate the smoothing coefficient between 0 and 1.0) that must be used when calculating forecasts using this algorithm. This defaults to 0.7. The coefficient determines the weighting applied to the last two historic demands. The most recent demand is multiplied by the coefficient while the older one is multiplied by one minus the coefficient.
|
||||
Trend coefficient |
Indicate the trend coefficient to use when calculating forecasts using this algorithm. This defaults to 0.6. You can override this at stock code/revision/release/warehouse level. |
Field | Description | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Six period weighted average options |
This algorithm calculates the forecast by weighting the contribution of the 6 periods immediately prior to the current one. The periods will be weeks or months, depending on the calendar being used. Depending on the weighting values, the algorithm will respond more slowly or more rapidly to trends. This algorithm does not detect seasonality.
|
||||||||
Weighting for periods forecast minus 1 & 2 |
Indicate the weighting that should be applied to the two periods immediately prior to the period being forecast. This defaults to 0.5, meaning that these two periods contribute 50% to the calculation of the forecast. |
||||||||
Weighting for periods forecast minus 3 &4 |
Indicate the weighting that should be applied to the third and fourth periods prior to the period being forecast. This defaults to 0.3, meaning that these two periods contribute 30% to the calculation of the forecast. |
||||||||
Weighting for periods forecast minus 5 & 6 |
Indicate the weighting that should be applied to the fifth and sixth periods prior to the period being forecast. This defaults to 0.2, meaning that these two periods contribute 20% to the calculation of the forecast. |
||||||||
Twelve period weighted average options |
This algorithm calculates the forecast by weighting the contribution of the 12 periods immediately prior to the current one. The periods will be weeks or months, depending on the calendar being used. Depending on the weighting values, the algorithm will respond more slowly or more rapidly to trends. This algorithm does not detect seasonality.
|
||||||||
Weighting for periods forecast minus 1, 2 & 3 |
Indicate the weighting that should be applied to the first three periods immediately prior to the period being forecast. This defaults to 0.45, meaning that these three periods contribute 45% to the calculation of the forecast. |
||||||||
Weighting for periods forecast minus 4, 5 & 6 |
Indicate the weighting that should be applied to the fourth, fifth and sixth periods prior to the period being forecast. This defaults to 0.25, meaning that these three periods contribute 25% to the calculation of the forecast. |
||||||||
Weighting for periods forecast minus 7, 8 & 9 |
Indicate the weighting that should be applied to the seventh, eighth and ninth periods prior to the period being forecast. This defaults to 0.2, meaning that these three periods contribute 20% to the calculation of the forecast. |
||||||||
Weighting for periods forecast minus 10, 11 & 12 |
Indicate the weighting that should be applied to the tenth, eleventh and twelfth periods prior to the period being forecast. This defaults to 0.1, meaning that these three periods contribute 10% to the calculation of the forecast. |
||||||||
Holt-Winters additive options |
The two Holt-Winters algorithms (additive and multiplicative) are complex algorithms that use three smoothing equations for level, trend and seasonality.
In the Holt-Winters Additive algorithm, the forecast is calculated by adding the three terms together.
|
||||||||
Optimize coefficients |
Select this to let the system try to find the optimum coefficient values to use when forecasting, instead of the values at the coefficient fields below. This option is selected by default.
|
||||||||
Level coefficient |
Indicate the level coefficient to be applied when forecasting with this algorithm. This defaults to 0. |
||||||||
Trend coefficient |
Indicate the trend coefficient to be applied when forecasting with this algorithm. |
||||||||
Seasonal coefficient |
Indicate the seasonal coefficient to be applied when forecasting with this algorithm. |
||||||||
Holt-Winters multiplicative options |
The two Holt-Winters algorithms (additive and multiplicative) are complex algorithms that use three smoothing equations for level, trend and seasonality.
In the Holt-Winters Multiplicative algorithm, the forecast is calculated by multiplying the three terms together.
|
||||||||
Optimize coefficients |
Select this to let the system try to find the optimum coefficient values to use when forecasting, instead of the values at the coefficient fields below. This option is selected by default.
|
||||||||
Level coefficient |
Indicate the level coefficient to be applied when forecasting with this algorithm. This defaults to 0. |
||||||||
Trend coefficient |
Indicate the trend coefficient to be applied when forecasting with this algorithm. |
||||||||
Seasonal coefficient |
Indicate the seasonal coefficient to be applied when forecasting with this algorithm. |
Field | Description | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Modeling Options |
Modeling allows the effect of a stock policy to be evaluated. The options below determine the outcome of the modeling calculation. By default, the model will take demand from the forecast. If no policy is in place, the suggested minimum will be zero and the suggested maximum equal to the total demand for the period. The selections you make here are set as the defaults for the Modeling Options in the IO Stock Levels Modeling program and in the Information pane in the IO Forecast Accuracy Query program.
|
||||
Forecast to use in demand |
The SYSPRO Inventory Optimization Suite uses a demand driven approach. This means that, in most cases, the inventory levels will be determined by the forecasted demand. The parameter you select here is applied for each stock code/revision/release/warehouse instance (also called a SKU-Loc or Stock Keeping Unit Location). |
||||
Live |
This is the forecast used for the Requirements Calculation and is stored in the Requirements Planning tables within SYSPRO. |
||||
Draft | This is the forecast that is created by the Inventory Forecasting or Inventory Families and Groupings modules and is stored in the Inventory Optimization tables within SYSPRO. | ||||
Last snapshot | Each time a Draft forecast is approved into Requirements Planning to become the Live forecast, a copy of that forecast is stored as a snapshot. As many snapshots may be stored within SYSPRO, this option selects the last snapshot created for each stock code/revision/release/warehouse instance. | ||||
Apply gross requirements rule | Applies the gross requirements rule defined against the stock item
when calculating the demand for a stock code/warehouse. Sales order demand is used as the basis for the calculation to determine the minimum level required for each period.
|
||||
Include dependant demand | Select this to include demand created by existing job allocations in calculating the model. This does not include demand from suggested jobs. | ||||
Apply batching rule to calculate maximum |
Select this rule to calculate the maximum stock level using the batching rule. By default, with no policy in place the model will suggest a minimum of zero and a maximum equal to the total demand. If a policy is in place, the model will calculate the minimum and maximum according to the policy. In either case the calculation of the maximum will be modified by the effect of the batching rule. |
||||
Period days to use | There are several fields in IO modelling which are based on the number of days in the period. | ||||
Total | Select this to use the total days in a period as part of the modeling calculation. | ||||
Working | Select this to use only the working days in a period as part of the modeling calculation. | ||||
Forecast accuracy defaults | These parameters define the way in which the forecast
accuracy program calculates the accuracy at each stock
code/revision/release/warehouse instance and also at
aggregated levels.
Please see Possible combinations of Comparison type and Forecast to use for the possible combinations of Comparison type with Forecast to use. |
||||
Comparison type | |||||
Period on period | Select this to compare the chosen forecast to the actual within the same period only. The forecast accuracy calculation only uses data pertaining to the period in question. | ||||
Moving average | Select this to compare the chosen forecast to the actual where both are calculated using a moving average. The forecast accuracy calculation uses data not only pertaining to the period in question but also to others near to it. | ||||
Forecast to use | Indicate which forecast to use when comparing against sales for each period. | ||||
Last | Select this to use the last forecast taken for the period irrespective of whether this snapshot is inside or outside the lead time. | ||||
Last outside lead | Select this to use the last forecast taken for the
period outside of the lead time.
|
||||
Average |
Select this to use the average of the most recent snapshots within the time window defined by the number of Snapshot months defined below.
|
||||
Average outside lead |
Select this to use the average of the most recent snapshots outside the lead time, within the time window defined by the number of Snapshot months defined below.
|
||||
Months to compare |
Select the time window in months prior to the Run date selected for the Forecast Accuracy review. If the calendar used is in weeks, then all the periods that fall within this time window will be included. The time window can be anything from 1 to 12 months. |
||||
Moving average months |
Select the time window in months for the periods used in the calculation of the moving average forecast in the Forecast Accuracy review. If the calendar used is in weeks, then all the periods that fall within this time window will be included. The time window can be anything from 1 to 12 months.
|
||||
Snapshot months |
Indicate the time window, in months, prior to the Run date selected for the Forecast Accuracy review. If the calendar used is in weeks, then all the snapshots that fall within this time window will be included. The time window can be anything from 1 to 6 months.
|
The possible combinations of Comparison type with Forecast to use are summarized below:
Period on period | Moving average | |
---|---|---|
Last | Uses last forecast snapshot. |
Uses the average of the last forecast snapshots within each of the periods that fall in the time window defined by Moving average months. The periods are defined by the forecast calendar used for the forecast accuracy calculation. |
Last outside lead | Uses last forecast snapshot outside lead time added to dock to stock. |
Uses the average of the last forecast snapshots outside the lead time within each of the periods that fall in the time window defined by Moving average months. |
Average | Uses the average of the forecasts for all the snapshots for the periods that fall within the time window defined by Snapshot months. The periods are defined by the forecast calendar used for the forecast accuracy calculation. |
Uses the average of the last forecast snapshots within all of the periods that fall in the time window defined by Moving average months and for all the snapshots within the time window defined by Snapshot months. The periods are defined by the forecast calendar used for the forecast accuracy calculation. |
Average outside lead | Uses the average of the forecasts for all the snapshots outside lead time added to dock to stock for the periods that fall within the time window defined by Snapshot months. The periods are defined by the forecast calendar used for the forecast accuracy calculation. |
Uses the average of the last forecast snapshots outside lead time added to dock to stock within all of the periods that fall in the time window defined by Moving average months and for all the snapshots within the time window defined by Snapshot months. The periods are defined by the forecast calendar used for the forecast accuracy calculation. |
Defining modeling setup options
Modeling is used to determine the different stock levels with different forecasting policies. Calculating forecast accuracy is important in modeling as well as forecast management.
Open the Inventory Optimization Setup program .
Select the Modeling tab.
Select the modeling options required.
Select the forecast accuracy defaults required.
Save your changes.
Defining the forecasting demand history to be retained
Open the Inventory Optimization Setup program .
Select the General tab.
Select the number of months to retain demand history for forecasting.
Save your changes.