Inventory Planning > Inventory Forecasting > Processing > Manual Forecasting

Manual Forecasting

You use this program to manually generate forecasts for items on an individual basis.

Whereas you use the Batch Forecasting program to forecast the bulk of your company's stock codes, you use the Manual Forecasting program to forecast those items that require closer attention (e.g. 'A' class items, new items with no history and items that are difficult to forecast).

You use the Forecast Comparison program to compare current forecasts with draft forecasts.

IO Manual Forecasting

Before you can generate forecasts, you need to indicate the inventory item(s) for which you want to define forecasts.

Field Description
Warehouse Enter the warehouse for the stock item for which you want to generate the forecast.
Stock code

Enter the code of the stock item for which you want to generate the forecast.

A stock item defined as a Notional part (Stock Code Maintenance) cannot be included in this selection.
Previous Use the previous stock code to the one displayed in the Stock code field.
Next Use the next stock code to the one displayed in the Stock code field.
Rev/Rel

Enter the revision/release of the Stock code if it is defined as ECC controlled (Stock Code Maintenance - Tracking).
Batch Selection Select this to use the IO Selections program to indicate a range of stock items for which you want to generate a forecast. You can select this function without entering any information in the previous fields.

When you select the Start Processing option in the IO Selections program, the items are displayed in the Manual Forecasting program.

OK Select this to continue.
Cancel Select this to return to the previous screen.

IO Manual Forecasting

This screen is displayed once you have indicated the stock item(s) for which you want to display the forecast information.

Field Description
Functions  
Edit Stock Code Options Select this to use the Options Maintenance program to maintain forecasting options at stock code/revision/release/warehouse level.
Edit Sales History Select this to use the Demand History Maintenance program to edit sales history information for the selected stock item.
Copy Suggested to Draft Select this to copy the calculated suggested forecasts to the draft forecasts (see Copy Suggested to Draft).
Edit Draft Select this to edit the draft forecast quantities for each period (see Draft Forecasts).
Update Current Forecasts

Select this to update your current forecasts (see Update Current Forecasts).

You cannot select this option if the activity: MRP Allow update of current forecasts is set to Denied against you operator code (Operator Maintenance - Security).
View Indicate the values you want to view in the listview columns and on the graph.
Quantities Select this to display the quantities in the stocking unit of measure.
Cost Values

Select this to display the cost values.

Forecast cost values are calculated using the current inventory cost in the selected warehouse.

Cost values are not displayed if you are denied access to the option: Show costs in Inventory/WIP queries (Operator Maintenance - Security - Fields).
Sales Values

Select this to display the sales values.

Forecast sales values are calculated using the list price for the item.
GP Values

Select this to display the gross profit values.

Forecast gross profit values are calculated as Sales values less Cost value.
GP Percentages

Select this to display the gross profit percentages.

Forecast gross profit percentages are calculated as Gross Profit value divided by Cost value shown as a percentage.
Graph

These options enable you to define the graph you want displayed on the Graph tab.

[Note]

There is a limit on the number of data sets that can be graphed simultaneously. This limit depends on the number of periods being graphed. If this number is greater than 36, then the maximum number of data sets that can be graphed is four. If the number of periods is less than or equal to 36, then up to eight data sets can be graphed. If the limit is exceeded, a warning message is displayed. This enables you to deselect the period that caused the data set to be exceeded.

Your selections are saved against your operator code.
Sales History This enables you to select to include sales data sets: Previous Year 1, Previous Year 2 and/or Previous Year 3 in the graph.
Current Forecast Select this to include the current forecast data set in the graph.
Draft Forecast Select this to include the draft forecast data set in the graph.
Calculated Forecast

You can select to include the following calculated data sets from the following algorithms in the graph:

  • Suggested
  • Competition
  • Mean
  • Median
  • Moving Average
  • Exponential Smoothing/Trend
  • Six Period Weighted Average
  • Twelve Period Weighted Average
  • Holt-Winters Additive
  • Holt-Winters Multiplicative
  • Annual Seasonal - Unsmoothed.
[Note]

The Six Period Weighted Average and Twelve Period Weighted Average algorithms are not applied when not enough history is available. In this case, the forecast calculation tries to use the default forecast algorithm if it differs, otherwise it reverts to using the Competition algorithm to calculate the forecasts.
Change  
Change Stock Code Select this to enter a different stock item/warehouse/rev/rel for which you want to generate a forecast (see IO Manual Forecasting).
Warehouse This indicates the warehouse for which the forecast information is currently being displayed.

If you did not enter a Batch Selection, then you can use the Prev and Next buttons to select the next/previous warehouse.
Stock code This indicates the stock item for which the forecast information is currently being displayed.

If you did not enter a Batch Selection, then you can use the Prev and Next buttons to select the next/previous stock item.

Forecasting Graph

This displays the graph you selected from the Graph menu.

Details

This tab page contains the following:

  • Stock Information pane
  • Forecasting Information pane
  • Forecasting Measures listview
  • Forecasting listview

Stock Information

Field Description
Stock code

The code of the stock item for which the forecast information is currently being displayed.

The following options can be accessed from this field:
Unit of measure The stocking unit of measure for the stock item.
Product class The product class defined against the stock item (see Browse on Product Classes).
Cost The current inventory cost of the item in the selected warehouse.
Supplier The default supplier defined against the stock item.
Replenishment item Indicates whether the item was defined as a replenishment item using the Options Maintenance program.
Default lead time The lead time as defined against the stock item.
Age (in months) This is calculated from the first sale or sales return, whichever is the earliest.
Stock on hand The current quantity on hand for the item in the selected warehouse.
Stock on order The current quantity on order for the item in the selected warehouse.
Stock on backorder The current quantity on backorder for the item in the selected warehouse.
Warehouse The warehouse for which the forecast information is currently being displayed.
Description The description defined against the currently selected stock item.
Rev/Rel

The revision/release of the stock item for which you want to generate a forecast.

This is only displayed if the stock item is defined as ECC controlled (Stock Code Maintenance).

Forecasting Information

Field Description
Forecast algorithm

The currently selected forecasting algorithm.
Algorithm used

This is the same as the Forecast algorithm except where:

  • the forecast algorithm is Competition, in which case the 'winning' algorithm is displayed
  • the forecast algorithm is one of the seasonal algorithms and the item being forecast has insufficient history or the calculated seasonal correlation falls outside of the specified cut-off. When this occurs, the algorithm reverts to the default algorithm specified in the Inventory Optimization Setup program. If the algorithm defined in the Inventory Optimization Setup program is also seasonal, then the Competition algorithm is displayed.
Competition measure The measure used for selecting the 'winning' algorithm when Competition is selected.
Months for competition The number of months into the past used to calculate the forecast error when choosing the 'winning' algorithm if Competition is used.
Manual forecast This indicates whether the item was manually forecast.
Forecast calendar The forecast calendar being used for the forecast.
Cumulative forecast error (CFE)

This measure represents the difference between the forecast and the actual sale(s) for the period under review, displayed cumulatively.

A positive number indicates a forecast that is too high for a period and a negative number indicates a forecast which is too low for a period.
Mean absolute deviation (MAD)

The calculated mean absolute deviation.

The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is the average absolute deviation from the mean (i.e. the average error, ignoring the sign of the error).
Mean square deviation (MSD)

The calculated mean square deviation.

The sum of the squared forecast errors for each observation divided by the number of observations. It is an alternative to the Mean Absolute Deviation except that, because the errors are squared, more weight is placed on larger errors.
Mean absolute % error (MAPE)

The calculated mean absolute percentage error.

This is calculated as the average of the sum of all the absolute percentage errors for the data set. The absolute values of the percentages are summed and the average is computed.

The difference between actual value and the forecast value is divided by the actual value. The absolute value of this calculation is summed for every forecast point in time and divided again by the number of fitted points.
Tracking signal

This is calculated as the algebraic sum of forecast errors divided by the Mean Absolute Deviation.

It indicates whether the forecast average is keeping pace with any genuine upward or downward changes in demand.
Current view

Your current selection from the View menu.

It indicates the type of values being displayed in the listview.
Forecast Algorithm

This screen is displayed when you select the Forecast Algorithm option from the Forecasting Information tab.

Field Description
Forecast algorithm You use this field to indicate the algorithm you want to use to calculate the forecast.

One of the following algorithms can be selected:

  • Competition
  • Mean
  • Median
  • Moving average
  • Exponential smoothing
  • Six period weighted average
  • Twelve period weighted average
  • Holt-Winters additive
  • Holt-Winters multiplicative
  • Annual seasonal profile - unsmoothed
Close Select this to accept your selection and to return to the previous screen.

Forecast Listviews

This pane includes the Forecasting Measures listview and the Forecasting listview.

Field Description
Forecasting Measures  
Period The periods to which the values relate.
Sales The value for the relevant period.
Suggested The suggested value for the relevant period.
CFE The Cumulative forecast error for the relevant period.
MAD The Mean absolute deviation for the relevant period.
MSD The Mean square deviation for the relevant period.
MAPE The Mean absolute % error for the relevant period.
Tracking The Tracking Signal for the relevant period.
Forecasting
[Note]

  • The listview displays either the quantity or the type of value you selected from the View menu.

  • If the results of a calculation are a negative value/quantity, then the forecast is set to zero, as it cannot be negative.
Period The periods to which the values relate. The period is shown as the moth of the year, the week number or the period number (if nether the week number or month apply).
Draft The value of the draft forecast.
Suggested The suggested forecast value for the period. It is calculated based on currently available information using the selected algorithm.
Forecast The current forecast for the period.
Sales x 3

These three columns indicate the sales figures for the past three years. These figures are obtained from sales, sales returns and sales adjustments using a proxy's sales (through multi-levels) if required. If used as a proxy and sales reduction is required, then the sales are reduced by the specified percentage.

For any given forecast period, if the 'reduce sales from' date is prior to the start date of the period, then the percentage to reduce sales is applied unadjusted. If, however, the 'reduce sales from' date is after the start date of the period (and before the end date), then a ratio of the number of days in the period prior to the 'reduce sales from' date is calculated. This ratio is applied to the percentage to reduce sales before the percentage is applied to the sales for the period.

If the item is being used as a proxy for more than one other item, then the sales reduction percentages from all the items using it as a proxy are accumulated and the total percentage applied to the sales figures.

Copy Suggested to Draft

You use the Copy Suggest to Draft option from the Functions menu to copy the calculated suggested forecast to the draft forecast.

When you select this option, the system performs the following:

  • Checks whether draft forecasts already exist for the item. If draft forecasts exist, a warning is issued to enable you to cancel the copy.

  • Deletes all existing draft forecast entries for the item that fall between the start date of the first forecast period and the end date of the last forecast period.

  • For each forecast period out to the horizon, outputs the forecast quantity evenly split over the number of days in the period (both working ad non-working days). The last day may have a different quantity as this day can contain rounding values.

Draft Forecasts

You use the Edit Draft option from the Functions menu to change the forecast quantity for the currently highlighted period in the listview.

Field Description
Period

This indicates the period for which you want to change the forecast details.

This defaults to the period highlighted in the listview when you selected the Edit Draft option from the Functions menu, but can be changed.
Advance to next period automatically Select this to automatically enter the next period in the Period field when you select the Save function.
Forecast quantity Enter the new forecast quantity for the selected period.
Freeze draft forecast Enable this to freeze the draft forecast so that:
  • the forecast is not over-written when suggested forecasts are copied to draft forecasts
  • the forecast is not deleted when updating live forecasts
  • the forecast and not the disaggregated figure is used during disaggregation

  • the forecast is not overwritten in Batch Forecasting. The quantities in the frozen draft forecasts are applied when creating live forecasts.
Save Select this to save the new quantity you entered.
Close Select this to return to the previous screen.

Update Current Forecasts

You use the Update Current Forecasts option from the Functions menu to update the current forecast in MRP.

You can only update current forecasts if the activity: I/O Update current forecasts from Manual & Batch Forecasting is allowed against your operator code (Operator Maintenance - Security tab).

Field Description
Reference Enter text for reference purposes that will be output to the forecasts.
Source  
Suggested forecasts Select this to use the calculated suggested forecasts to update the current forecasts.
Draft forecasts Select this to use the draft forecasts to update the current forecasts.

This is option only available where a draft forecast exists. If, for example you set your draft forecast to zero without freezing the forecast (Families and Groupings) then the draft entries are deleted and no draft forecast exists.
Periods to update  
From Indicate the first period that must be updated.
To Indicate the last period that must be updated.
Output method  
One forecast per period on the first working day Select this to output only one forecast per forecasting period on the first working day within the period (default selection).
One forecast per period on the first day Select this to output only one forecast per forecasting period on the first day of the period regardless of whether it is a working day.
Split forecast quantity over all working days Select this to split the forecast quantity for the period evenly over the working days within the period.
[Note]

The last working day may have a different quantity to the others because of rounding.
Split forecast quantity over all days

Select this to split the forecast quantity for the period evenly over the days (both working and non-working) within the period.

[Note]

The last working day may have a different quantity to the others because of rounding.
Delete draft forecasts in updated periods Select this to delete all draft forecasts that fall within the periods for which current forecasts are being updated.
Start Processing

Select this to commence processing.

When you select this option, the system performs the following:

  • Delete all existing current forecast entries for the item if:

    • they fall between the start date of the first forecast period and the end date of the last forecast period AND
    • no sales are recorded against the entries (forecast depletion)

  • Set existing current forecast entries to inactive if:

    • they fall between the start date of the first forecast period and the end date of the last forecast period AND
    • that have had sales recorder against them
  • For each forecast, out to the forecast horizon, output the forecast quantity according to the forecast option selected

  • Snapshots of forecasts created for stock code/warehouse combinations are stored and used in the Forecast Accuracy Review program.
Close Select this to return to the previous screen without updating the forecast.

Notes and warnings

Sales updates

  • Updates to the forecast history for sales and sales returns take place automatically for the stock code/warehouse combinations you process when the option: Update sales history automatically (Inventory Optimization Setup) is enabled.

Activity considerations

Operator access to the following activities within this program can be restricted. You configure this using the Operator Maintenance program.

Activity Description
IO Allow update of current forecasts Controls whether an operator can update current (live) Inventory forecasts using the Batch Forecasting, IO Stock Levels Modeling and Manual Forecasting programs.

Application Help Pane

Application Help Panes provide step-by-step instructions for various functions within the program, including a brief overview of what the program does, what setup options are required and how to personalize the program. The intention is that the pane provides information that is uncluttered and easy to navigate.

You can embed an Application Help Pane:

  • in the main SYSPRO menu

  • in any program with panes, if not using roles

  • when adding a role layout in Design Mode.

Inserting Application Help

You would typically follow this procedure to display help for the current program in a customized pane that can be pinned to the program window.

Information includes step-by-step instructions for the various functions available within the program, including a brief overview of what the program does, what setup options are required and how to personalize the program.

  1. Open the program for which you want to insert application help into a customized pane.

    This functionality is only available for a program that has panes.

  2. Right-click any form field.

    You can also click the triangle menu icon that appears in the title area of a pane.

  3. Select Insert Application Help from the context-sensitive menu.

    The application help appears in a pane within your program. You can reposition the pane using the docking stickers or pin it to the program window.

Removing the Application Help pane

If you no longer want to display application help in a pane for your current program, you can simply remove it.

  1. Select the Close icon in the right-hand corner of the application help pane.

  2. Confirm that you want to delete the pane.